09 February 2010

Current Events: Black Hawk Down Revisited

Showdown In Mogadishu
February 9, 2010:

The Transitional Government now has the upper hand in Mogadishu, and is attempting to drive al Shabaab gunmen from city. The government has been able to do this because of the several thousand soldiers trained in Djibouti, Burundi and Kenya. These men have been arriving back in the city over the past few weeks, and have, along with the AU peacekeepers, changed the balance of power.
The Islamic radicals have also been weakened by battles with other Islamic radical groups, and religious and clan militias organized for self-defense. Al Shabaab has tried to protect itself in the city by living in residential areas (and preventing the civilians from fleeing). That hasn't worked, and civilian casualties are higher as a result.
Back in the 1990s, the use of human shields worked a few times against peacekeepers (who got killed in large numbers as a result). But since then, the word has got around that you either kill the human shields, or get killed.
This stark choice is one thing that has kept Western peacekeepers from returning to Somalia, as Western politicians don't want to deal with this sort of nastiness. But al Shabaab is still pretty strong, particularly because they control the port of Kismayo (south of Mogadishu) which get sea and air shipments of weapons from Eritrea. Attempts to stop Eritrea (which denies everything) have failed, and the weapons keep coming. More here...

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